Buying Points
Paying for a friendlier spread or total by swallowing worse odds — often to clear key numbers like 3 and 7 in football.
Buying points is a feature plenty of books offer that lets you nudge the spread or total in your favor in exchange for worse odds. Each half-point typically costs another 10 cents of juice. Shift a spread from -7 to -6.5 and the odds might slide from -110 to -120, meaning you risk more to win the same. The idea is simple: you pay a premium to improve your number, shrinking the odds that the original line beats you by a hair.
Buying points comes up most in football, where final margins pile up on certain key numbers. Touchdowns are worth 7 and field goals 3, so a lopsided share of NFL games land on exactly 3 or 7. Moving a spread off or through those numbers can sharply boost a bet’s odds of winning or pushing. But buying through non-key numbers — say -5 to -4.5 — carries far less statistical payoff, and the cost in worse odds usually outweighs the slim bump in win probability.
Example
A book lists Team A as a 7-point favorite at standard -110. You buy a half-point, sliding the spread from -7 to -6.5 at -125. Now if Team A wins by exactly 7, your bet cashes instead of pushing. To win $100 here, you risk $125 rather than $110. Whether that trade is worth it depends on how often games land on that exact number. In the NFL, roughly 9% of games are decided by exactly 7 points, making this one of the more defensible point-buys around.
Key Points
- Key numbers matter most: In football, buying off 3 and 7 delivers the biggest statistical payoff since those are the most common winning margins. Buying through other numbers rarely pays.
- Cost adds up over time: Every half-point bought trims the payout. Across hundreds of bets, the cumulative drag can seriously erode returns if you don’t pick your spots.
- More valuable for favorites through 3: Moving a favorite from -3 to -2.5 is one of the most recommended point-buys, since a hefty share of NFL games finish with a 3-point margin.
- Less relevant in basketball and baseball: Margins in these sports spread out and don’t bunch on specific numbers, so buying points offers less value.
- Compare across sportsbooks first: Before paying to buy a point, check whether another book already hangs a better number at standard odds.