Poisson Calc
Likely scores and results from each team's expected goals.
How to Use This Calculator
- Plug in the expected goals for the home team (pulled from your own analysis or xG data)
- Plug in the expected goals for the away team
- Read off the probabilities for home win, draw, away win, over/under 2.5, and BTTS
- Scan the scoreline probability grid to nail down specific score predictions
Formula
Poisson Probability: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Where λ = expected goals, k = actual goals scored
Scoreline Probability = P(Home = h) × P(Away = a)
Assumes home and away goals are independent events.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's the Poisson distribution doing in betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model that estimates the probability of a set number of events (goals) happening in a fixed window. Football bettors lean on it heavily to project match scorelines straight from expected goals averages.
Where do I get expected goals from?
Expected goals (xG) figures live on football statistics sites. Or you can work out a team’s average goals scored per game from recent fixtures yourself. The sharper models go further, factoring in home advantage, opponent strength, and current form.
Just how accurate is the Poisson model?
Poisson gives you a solid baseline for football forecasts. The catch: it assumes goals are independent events, which doesn’t always hold up (think momentum swings or red cards). It shines on pre-match calls in leagues with steady scoring patterns.
Which markets does Poisson cover?
Poisson is the go-to for 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS). With a bit of tweaking it also handles Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time predictions.